Marufish BLoG

The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for July-September, 2008 BUSAN, 25 June 2008 - Synthesis of the latest computer model forecasts for July to September, 2008 at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located in Busan, Korea, suggests continuing wetter-than-normal monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent, while drier than normal conditions are expected in many parts of south and southeast Asia. Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected in Western Europe, northern portions of North America and in Asia over a large region covering South-central Russia, Mongolia, and Northeast China and some other regions of northeast Asia. The current conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean are conducive for evolution of a positive IOD event . Current Climate Conditions During the past three months (based on data from 1 April up to June 13, 2008), the southern US, northern part of Mexico, and central to southern South America have seen deficiency in rainfall, while wetter than normal conditions prev...

WMO El Niño/La Niña Update 24 June 2008 Current Situation and Outlook La Niña conditions prevailed through May 2008, but the event gradually weakened from its peak strength in February. The recent weeks have seen a more rapid decay, indicating a possible conclusion to the event. Even if some aspects of La Niña continue over the next few weeks, near neutral conditions are considered the most likely outcome for the middle part of the year and shortly thereafter. Rapid development of El Niño or re-development of La Niña is not considered likely for the middle part of the year. However, model forecasts and expert interpretation suggest that the pathway of the system is loosely constrained at this time, and there is need for careful monitoring over the coming weeks. For the second half of the year, the chance of an El Niño developing is small, but it cannot be ruled out. In such circumstances, near-neutral conditions should be considered the most likely outcome for the second half of 2008. ...

Weekend rains to help lift ‘break’ phase The Hindu Business Line Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram, June 24 The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has stuck to its outlook on the monsoon coming back to life helped on by the twin ‘props’ emerging from the peninsular seas. Two cyclonic circulations with prospects for intensification are seen springing up one after the other over northwest Bay of Bengal and north Arabian Sea. They would act as the fulcrum around which the rains would flourish over the weekend and into the next. Most of the rains would fall in peninsular India that has seen hardly any significant rain after the initial burst .The heavy rain had shifted later to the east and northeast giving way to break monsoon-like conditions. BREAK MONSOON ‘Break monsoon’ is the term used to describe the phase obtaining after an active wet spell runs through the course. The rain-driving monsoon trough shifts to the foothills of the Himalayas, confining rains to tha...

US, Asian models see normal rains during July June 20, 2008, The Hindu Business Line Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram, June 20 India is likely to have a normal monsoon during the agriculturally crucial July-August-September quarter, with surplus precipitation indicated for the north Madhya Pradesh-east Rajasthan-Uttar Pradesh belt. This is according to the latest update from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction at Columbia University. The September-October-November quarter that coincides with the north-east monsoon later this year will see above normal rains for southwest Rajasthan, northwest Madhya Pradesh and east Gujarat. A similar forecast has been put out by the Busan, South Korea-based APCC, a climate model, developed by member-countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). It said that India’s west coast and adjoining central provinces, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar may get surplus rainfall during June-July-August. Reasonably good precipitatio...

The whole Southern Java is filled with cooler SST as the result from the coastal upwelling. It further causing large phytoplankton bloom that extended until the off shore region.