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Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) 2008
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{Press release} 080630 IMD Long range forecast update for the 2008 Southwest monsoon rainfall
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT Long range forecast update for the 2008 Southwest monsoon rainfall 1. Background India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been following a two-stage forecast strategy for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole, in which the first forecast is issued in April and the forecast update is issued by end of June. Based on a 5-parameter ensemble statistical model, IMD issued the following forecast for the 2008 southwest monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole. IMD’s long range forecast for the 2008 south-west monsoon season (June to September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be Near Normal. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 99% of the long period average with a model error of ± 5%. The Long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cm. 2. Second Stage Forecasts IMD has now prepared the following forecasts, which are being released now: a) Fore...
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