Wednesday, June 25, 2008

{News} 080625 Climate Outlook for July-September, 2008


Climate Outlook for July-September, 2008

BUSAN, 25 June 2008 - Synthesis of the latest computer model forecasts for July to September, 2008 at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located in Busan, Korea, suggests continuing wetter-than-normal monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent, while drier than normal conditions are expected in many parts of south and southeast Asia. Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected in Western Europe, northern portions of North America and in Asia over a large region covering South-central Russia, Mongolia, and Northeast China and some other regions of northeast Asia. The current conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean are conducive for evolution of a positive IOD event.

Current Climate Conditions During the past three months (based on data from 1 April up to June 13, 2008), the southern US, northern part of Mexico, and central to southern South America have seen deficiency in rainfall, while wetter than normal conditions prevailed in northeastern South America and the equatorial Atlantic. The central-northern part of North America has experienced colder than normal conditions. Warmer-than-normal temperatures were found in Europe. It has been warm and dry over a large region covering North Africa, the Middle East as well as mid-latitude central-to-East Asia. Most parts of the continental Australia also experienced deficiency in rainfall. On the other hand, it has been wetter than normal in the Philippines and the southern Polynesian Islands. During late May to mid June, heavy monsoon rainfall was observed over southern China and many parts of the Indian subcontinent. Current cooler than normal Sea Surface Temperatures over equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and surface wind conditions suggest a possibility of the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event.

ForecastAnomalously wet conditions are expected to prevail in a broad horse-shoe shaped region in the tropical western Pacific west of the dateline, covering several Polynesian islands, parts of Malaysia as well as Indonesia; the Indonesian region is likely to experience mixed signals in rainfall. In general, anomalously cool to near-normal conditions are expected in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, and adjoining tropical Africa. Anomalously dry conditions are also forecast for Sri Lanka, and may extend northeast, through Indochina, all the way into Japanese archipelago. Parts of midlatitude Asia, including the South-central Russian region, Mongolia, and Northeast China and some other regions of northeast Asia are likely to experience anomalously warm conditions. In contrast, the Indian subcontinent is expected to see cooler than normal conditions; the summer monsoon rainfall over the subcontinent may continue to be above normal. Parts of the midlatitudes and Mediterranean are likely to experience anomalously warm conditions, while some of these regions may also receive more-than-normal rainfall. There is a moderate chance that the Western Europe and the adjoining African regions may be in for anomalously hot conditions, and parts of the Western Europe may also see some weak drought-like conditions. Except in the north, the African continent may experience anomalously wet and cold conditions. The Alaskan region may be anomalously cold and dry, particularly in September. It is likely that northern North America may experience anomalously hot conditions. The Mexican region may receive more than normal rainfall and is likely to see cooler-than-normal temperatures. Similar conditions are also forecast for in the tropics on the other side of the equator. Dry conditions may be seen in the mid-latitudes of South America, poleward of which anomalously surplus rainfall is predicted Except in the south-western regions, the Australian continent, in general, is forecast to experience slightly dry and cold conditions for the next three months.It is seen that the La Nina conditions have weakened. Moreover, the current conditions in tropical Indian Ocean are conducive for development of a positive IOD event. In consideration of all the above, the regional conditions need careful monitoring for any new developments


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