Marufish BLoG

Drought woes to continue: Jamstec Weekly Times, October 31, 2008 BLEAK is the only way to describe Japanese forecasters' latest outlook for southeast Australia. "Large parts of Australia will still suffer from the long-lasting drought (until) the end of this year," according to Japan's Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Jamstec . Jamstec senior scientist Jing-Jia Luo said the group's Sintex computer model showed conditions would remain dry until January in southern Australia. "Early next year, good rain might occur in association with the demise of IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) and weak cooling in the central equatorial Pacific," Mr Jing-Jia said. The Jamstec team, led by Prof Toshio Yamagata, has predicted the last three positive IOD events. The group's most accurate modelling is based on pooled three-month outlooks across the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Jamstec team produces monthly forecasts that show southeast Australia will experience a ...

Can smoke and mirrors ease global warming? By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent, Oct 27, 2008 OSLO (Reuters) - Backers of extreme technologies to curb global warming advocate dumping iron dust into the seas or placing smoke and mirrors in the sky to dim the sun. Splinters of ice peel off from one of the sides of the Perito Moreno glacier in a process of a unexpected rupture during the southern hemisphere's winter months, near the city of El Calafate in the Patagonian province of Santa Cruz, southern Argentina, in this July 7, 2008 file photo. But, even though they are seen by some as cheap fixes for climate change when many nations are worried about economic recession, such "geo-engineering" proposals have to overcome wide criticism that they are fanciful and could have unforeseen side effects. "We are at the boundaries, treading in areas that we are not normally dealing with," said Rene Coenen, head of the Office for the London Convention, an internation...

Models raise the mercury 29/10/2008 9:15:00 AM, FairFax Digital CENTRAL Victoria is bracing for another hot summer, with the Bureau of Meteorology's latest outlook indicating higher than average temperatures through to January. Higher daytime and night-time temperatures look set to exacerbate an already dry spring and cause more water losses through evaporation. The latest climatic outlook based on modelling of ocean temperatures shows a probability of up to 70 per cent that daytime temperatures will exceed the median from November to January. The probability in relation to night-time temperatures is as high as 80 per cent. However, the silver lining is that rainfall outlooks don't show any strong tendency to be below or above average. Even average rain of about 110mm over the next three months would be a blessing. The two-month spring rainfall total in Bendigo is only 15mm, so it is tracking to be one of the worst on record. Climatologist Robyn Gardiner said the strongest infl...

Chemicals being dumped in Sulu Sea? GMA News, 10/09/2008 04:27 AM ZAMBOANGA CITY, Philippines — Residents of Tawi-Tawi province have sought assistance over alleged dumping of tons of chemicals in the Sulu Sea as part of an "ocean cleansing" project of an international organization.Governor Sadikul A. Sahali claimed Ocean Nourishment Corp. (ONC) did not inform his office of the plan to dump tons of chemicals, specifically urea, into the province’s seas.The company, in its Web site http://www.oceannourishment.com/, described itself as "an ethical organization established with the dual goals of managing planet-wide greenhouse gas concentrations and providing protein-rich food for malnourished populations."Officials of the company listed on the Web site could not be contacted for comment. BusinessWorld also repeatedly tried to contact Malcolm I. Sarmiento, Jr., director of the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, to clarify if his agency has cleared ONC’s operati...

ENSO Wrap-up BOM, Oct 8, 2008 Summary: Neutral ENSO conditions to continue The overall state of the climate in the Pacific Basin remains neutral with respect to ENSO. The eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has shown further cooling over the past fortnight, with surface temperatures now close to their long-term average. Also, recent cooling in the subsurface indicates the possibility of a further surface cooling over the coming weeks, especially in the eastern Pacific. This cooling has been largely driven by stronger than normal trade winds over the central and western equatorial Pacific during September. The SOI, although slightly weaker than two weeks ago, remains positive at +10. Given current conditions and trends in the equatorial Pacific there is now little potential for an El Niño event to occur in 2008. Historically, there is a strong tendency for the phase of ENSO to remain constant through the southern spring; therefore a switch to La Niña conditions is also very unlikely. This is...

Climate's three-headed dog MATTHEW CAWOOD Farmonline, 15/10/2008 2:10:00 PM There's a "three-headed dog" savaging Australia's climate, according to CSIRO scientist Dr Wenju Cai, and two of the heads are eating away at rainfall in southern Australia. The three climate influences referred to by Dr Cai are El Nino, the Southern Annullar Mode, and the Indian Ocean Dipole. All are driven by ocean temperatures, and all are being intensified, to Australia's disadvantage, by global warming. El Nino, driven by temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is well studied and has had fairly predictable consequences for mid-latitude eastern Australia. The other two influences are less well known, but Dr Cai said there is growing evidence that their fluxes are behind the drying-out of southern Australia. One, Southern Annular Mode (SAM), appears to be driving rain-bearing winter fronts progressively out into the Southern Ocean. To the west, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is blocking...