{Annoucement} 081008! ENSO Wrap-up

ENSO Wrap-up

BOM, Oct 8, 2008

Summary: Neutral ENSO conditions to continue
The overall state of the climate in the Pacific Basin remains neutral with respect to ENSO. The eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has shown further cooling over the past fortnight, with surface temperatures now close to their long-term average. Also, recent cooling in the subsurface indicates the possibility of a further surface cooling over the coming weeks, especially in the eastern Pacific. This cooling has been largely driven by stronger than normal trade winds over the central and western equatorial Pacific during September. The SOI, although slightly weaker than two weeks ago, remains positive at +10.
Given current conditions and trends in the equatorial Pacific there is now little potential for an El Niño event to occur in 2008. Historically, there is a strong tendency for the phase of ENSO to remain constant through the southern spring; therefore a switch to La Niña conditions is also very unlikely. This is supported by climate model forecasts, which show neutral conditions are likely to remain until the end of the year. The Indian Ocean Dipole is following its normal cycle of decay in the spring and is currently close to zero.

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

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