{Annoucement} 081008! ENSO Wrap-up

ENSO Wrap-up

BOM, Oct 8, 2008

Summary: Neutral ENSO conditions to continue
The overall state of the climate in the Pacific Basin remains neutral with respect to ENSO. The eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has shown further cooling over the past fortnight, with surface temperatures now close to their long-term average. Also, recent cooling in the subsurface indicates the possibility of a further surface cooling over the coming weeks, especially in the eastern Pacific. This cooling has been largely driven by stronger than normal trade winds over the central and western equatorial Pacific during September. The SOI, although slightly weaker than two weeks ago, remains positive at +10.
Given current conditions and trends in the equatorial Pacific there is now little potential for an El Niño event to occur in 2008. Historically, there is a strong tendency for the phase of ENSO to remain constant through the southern spring; therefore a switch to La Niña conditions is also very unlikely. This is supported by climate model forecasts, which show neutral conditions are likely to remain until the end of the year. The Indian Ocean Dipole is following its normal cycle of decay in the spring and is currently close to zero.

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

{Paper} 081116! Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean

Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean Nature Geoscience Published online: 16 November 2008 doi:10.1038/ngeo357 Nerilie J. Abram 1 , 2 , Michael K. Gagan 1 , Julia E. Cole 3 , Wahyoe S. Hantoro 4 & Manfred Mudelsee 5 The interplay of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Asian monsoon and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) 1, 2, 3 drives climatic extremes in and around the Indian Ocean. Historical 4, 5 and proxy 6, 7, 8, 9 records reveal changes in the behaviour of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Asian monsoon over recent decades 10, 11, 12 . However, reliable instrumental records of the IOD cover only the past 50 years 1, 3 , and there is no consensus on long-term variability of the IOD or its possible response to greenhouse gas forcing 13 . Here we use a suite of coral oxygen-isotope records to reconstruct a basin-wide index of IOD behaviour since AD 1846. Our record reveals an increase in the frequency and strength of IOD events during the tw...
Read more

{News} 080804 Haze returns to region as Sumatra's illegal fires rage

Haze returns to region as Sumatra's illegal fires rage The Straits Times, Aug 4, 2008 Despite fire-fighting efforts, visibility just 2km in Riau; air over Malaysia worsens By Teo Cheng Wee, In Kuala Lumpur and Salim Osman, Indonesia Correspondent In Jakarta HAZE shrouded parts of the region yesterday after fires scorched forest and plantation land in Sumatra over the weekend, enveloping the Riau capital of Pekanbaru and parts of Peninsular Malaysia. The authorities have squarely blamed Indonesian farmers and plantation workers, who are clearing the land using slash-and-burn methods that have been banned since 1999. The number of hot spots in Sumatra surged from 351 to 531 on Saturday, before dipping to 360 yesterday, according to the Indonesian Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG). This was confirmed by Singapore's National Environment Agency. BMG analyst Selamat Triyadi told The Straits Times that Riau alone accounted for some 136 hot spots, while Pelalawan and Rokan Hulu h...
Read more