{Annoucement} 080924! BOM ENSO Wrap-Up, 24 Sep 2008

BOM ENSO Wrap-Up, 24 Sep 2008

Summary: Neutral conditions likely to end the year
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral with further slight cooling over the last three weeks. Subsurface temperatures have also cooled, pointing to the possibility of a further reduction of surface temperatures over the coming weeks. This cooling has been largely driven by stronger than normal trade winds in the central and western equatorial Pacific. The SOI reflects the recent changes in the oceans, and has risen to a value of +17.


Given current conditions and trends in the equatorial Pacific there is now little potential for an El Niño event to occur in 2008. Historically, ENSO conditions tend to persist through spring, suggesting a switch to La Niña conditions is also unlikely. This is supported by climate model forecasts, which show neutral conditions are likely to remain until the end of the year. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole is following its normal cycle of decay in the spring and is expected to decline further and remain neutral over the coming months by most models.

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

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