IOD News 12 Oct 07! La Nina may set Bay on fire!

La Nina may set Bay on fire

12 Oct 2007, from Business Line
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/10/13/stories/2007101352861200.htm
by Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 12 All leading international weather models are now convinced that a La Nina event (colder counterpart of El Nino) is strengthening, with a warming anomaly getting entrenched in the west-central to north-west Pacific.
While the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) had sounded a related warning earlier this month, the latest update by the US National Centres of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) goes to confirm it further.
La Nina conditions develop when eastern and central equatorial Pacific (near the South American coast) cool down concurrently with a comparable warming of the equatorial west Pacific. This is just the reverse of El Nino and is widely believed seen as aiding annual precipitation over Australia, India and Indonesia.
In La Nina years, the easterly winds from the Americas are stronger than usual. They drive more than the normal amount of warm sea-water westward to Asia. With so much warm water flowing in, the Pacific’s mighty heat engine remains firmly anchored in the west, causing heavier monsoon rains in India.
A growing La Nina is believed to have combined with the ‘positive Indian Ocean Dipole’ (warming of the southwest Indian Ocean) to bring about surplus precipitation during the just concluded southwest monsoon.
The maturing La Nina could result in enhanced convective activity and storms in the west Pacific/South China Sea, which could get reverberated in the contiguous Bay of Bengal.
With another northeast monsoon beckoning, weathermen are watching the behaviour of the Bay.

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