IOD News 4 Oct 2007! Expert predicts dry Spring
Expert predicts dry Spring
News from theage.com.au
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Expert-predicts-dry-Spring/2007/10/04/1191091265433.html
October 4, 2007 - 4:54PM
Drought-stricken farmers in Australia's south-east, desperate for rain to grow grain crops, face the prospect of spring rainfall 40 per cent below the annual average.
CSIRO scientist Dr Wenju Cai told an agri-climate change conference in Sydney that this year's rainfall in the country's south-east should be almost the same as in 1967, when spring rains were 40 per cent below the norm.
It's the first year since then that a coincidence has occurred of two particular global weather events - an Indian Ocean Dipole and a La Nina.
"In 1967, spring rainfall in most of south-eastern Australia was about 40 per cent lower than average," Dr Cai told the Greenhouse 2007 Program audience.
"Although a La Nina event would normally give us more rainfall over eastern Australia, it seems to have been overwhelmed by the reduction due to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)."
Dr Cai said long-term predictions for steadily drier weather were based on increasing CO2 levels and the global warming of the Indian Ocean, creating more IOD-like conditions.
"That is the consensus reached by most of the climate models and that indicates rainfall trends will continue to decrease in the winter and spring seasons," he said.
Dr Cai said rainfall in Australia's south-east corner, reaching north to Sydney and west to Adelaide, was predicted to decrease by 10 to 15 per cent by 2050, reducing dam inflows in the area by 30 to 40 per cent.
The area covers about 50 per cent of Australia's food bowl, the Murray-Darling Basin.
The prediction is based the international Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's forecast of a 1.5 to two degree celsius global warming by 2050.
It comes as economists revise down winter wheat crop estimates by as much as seven million tonnes, after a lack of follow-up rain after planting.
The National Australia Bank (NAB) general manager of agribusiness, Wayne Carlson, on Tuesday described the conditions as "extremely disappointing".
"Apart from a few pockets still having a great season, our bankers are now reporting declining outlooks for crops and a sell-off of livestock as pasture growth falters and feed prices skyrocket," he said.
Both dire outlooks come as wheat belts from NSW to Western Australia sit under clear blue skies, with little chance of rain in the next seven days.
News from theage.com.au
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Expert-predicts-dry-Spring/2007/10/04/1191091265433.html
October 4, 2007 - 4:54PM
Drought-stricken farmers in Australia's south-east, desperate for rain to grow grain crops, face the prospect of spring rainfall 40 per cent below the annual average.
CSIRO scientist Dr Wenju Cai told an agri-climate change conference in Sydney that this year's rainfall in the country's south-east should be almost the same as in 1967, when spring rains were 40 per cent below the norm.
It's the first year since then that a coincidence has occurred of two particular global weather events - an Indian Ocean Dipole and a La Nina.
"In 1967, spring rainfall in most of south-eastern Australia was about 40 per cent lower than average," Dr Cai told the Greenhouse 2007 Program audience.
"Although a La Nina event would normally give us more rainfall over eastern Australia, it seems to have been overwhelmed by the reduction due to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)."
Dr Cai said long-term predictions for steadily drier weather were based on increasing CO2 levels and the global warming of the Indian Ocean, creating more IOD-like conditions.
"That is the consensus reached by most of the climate models and that indicates rainfall trends will continue to decrease in the winter and spring seasons," he said.
Dr Cai said rainfall in Australia's south-east corner, reaching north to Sydney and west to Adelaide, was predicted to decrease by 10 to 15 per cent by 2050, reducing dam inflows in the area by 30 to 40 per cent.
The area covers about 50 per cent of Australia's food bowl, the Murray-Darling Basin.
The prediction is based the international Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's forecast of a 1.5 to two degree celsius global warming by 2050.
It comes as economists revise down winter wheat crop estimates by as much as seven million tonnes, after a lack of follow-up rain after planting.
The National Australia Bank (NAB) general manager of agribusiness, Wayne Carlson, on Tuesday described the conditions as "extremely disappointing".
"Apart from a few pockets still having a great season, our bankers are now reporting declining outlooks for crops and a sell-off of livestock as pasture growth falters and feed prices skyrocket," he said.
Both dire outlooks come as wheat belts from NSW to Western Australia sit under clear blue skies, with little chance of rain in the next seven days.
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