{News} 080807 Average rain - hooray!

Average rain - hooray!


GREGOR HEARD AND MATTHEW CAWOOD
7/08/2008 12:00:00 PM
It may not grab headlines, but for croppers across south-eastern Australia, forecasts of average rain patterns throughout the spring are good enough.
With solid July rain totals in many areas, an 'average' spring rainfall would be enough for a good winter harvest, to allow most grain farmers some chance at average yields.
With booming prices, that would be a start to replenishing depleted coffers.
After the nightmarish Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reports in June which suggested a sharp swing towards a markedly drier than average spring, the most recent BOM rain forecast has predicted average conditions for much of south-eastern Australia.
The bureau said the pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across south-eastern Australia is a result of a continued strong warming trend, in the central and south eastern Indian Ocean, off the coast of Western Australia, and a warming trend over the equatorial Pacific.
In terms of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, conditions have remained close to neutral throughout July.
Modelling shows neutral conditions are likely to continue in 2008, with most models showing some warming in the coming season, but none suggesting a redevelopment of a La Niña and only a minority predicting a return to El Niño.
And since winter is a period of relatively high predictability, the neutral forecast can be viewed with some confidence.
The Indian Ocean is currently in a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (which increases the chance of low winter-spring falls in south east Australia), but the index used to measure the IOD, has weakened considerably since its peak in early June, boosting growers’ hopes for reasonable spring rain.
The IOD is forecast to persist but moderate further throughout the rest of the year.
In far western NSW there was a moderate swing towards the chance of below average rain in the coming three months.

The Land, August 7
Source: http://www.theland.com.au

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