{Annoucement} 080702 ENSO Wrap-Up

ENSO Wrap-Up

Summary: Neutral ENSO conditions likely to persist

July 2, 2008
Neutral ENSO conditions are now firmly established in the tropical Pacific. Over the past two weeks most indicators of ENSO have weakened further. Sea surface temperatures are now close to normal (generally within 1°C) across the entire basin, including close to the dateline where the last remnants of the La Niña had persisted. The Trade Winds have moderated further, cloudiness near the dateline has been near-normal and the SOI has also been in the neutral range since May. Temperatures in the sub-surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean have also moderated in the centre and west of the basin but weak warming has occurred in the east. All ENSO indicators are now neutral.


Climate model forecasts of ENSO show that neutral conditions are likely to continue thoughout 2008. Most models show some warming in the coming season. None suggest a redevelopment of a La Niña and only a minority predict an El Niño developing. Those forecasts that do were based on conditions in early June when Trade Winds had weakened, a situation that has now eased. More recent forecasts favour neutral conditions. As winter is a period of relatively high predictability the persistence of neutral conditions is considered the most likely scenario in the coming months. However, there is still a small chance of an El Niño in 2008, as events have been known to evolve late in the year. The Pacific will continue to be monitored closely for any signs of El Niño growth.


The Indian Ocean is currently in a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), but the index used to measure the IOD has weakened considerably since its peak in early June. Those models that forecast the IOD show it persisting but moderating further throughout the rest of the year. As a positive IOD is known to increase the chance of below normal winter-spring rainfall in southeast Australia, its evolution will also be closely monitored.

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

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