{News} 080702 Rains bear down heavily over Gujarat region

Rains bear down heavily over Gujarat region

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, July 2 The intensity of precipitation along the west coast moderated somewhat on Wednesday as dry northwesterlies pushed their way into the moisture-laden southwesterlies. But the rains bore down heavily over the Gujarat region as winds picked up in speed.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the offshore trough from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast with an embedded cyclonic circulation over northeast Arabian Sea triggered heavy to very heavy rainfall over Konkan, Goa, the south Gujarat region and Saurashtra.

Wind speeds along the coast to the north of Kerala clocked 25 to 30 knots (46 to 55 km/hr) while they were marked down to the south. International models are of the view that the rains would linger over the west coast, east and northwest India in the short-to-medium term.

The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services has said there is increased chance for above-average rainfall over West Indian Ocean (hotbed of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event), the east Arabian Sea and over the larger Indian landmass except extreme east and the northeast during the week ending July 7.

In its Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment for the week, the CPC said it based its predictions on the ‘near-to-above-average’ sea surface temperatures and favourable low-level (monsoon) winds. But it assessed the probability as ‘low’ on a scale marked ‘moderate’ to ‘high’ representing calibrated levels of confidence in the event.

The US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies more or less agreed with this outlook saying rains would concentrate along the west coast, east India and the northeast to the near-total exclusion of the southeast peninsula. Its extended forecast said that the Konkan-Mumbai-South Gujarat belt would see rains rev up again after July 10.

The Global Forecast System of the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration too has said that the rains would be markedly present along the west coast, south Gujarat, southwest Rajasthan and east India during July 2-10. The interior southeast peninsula (mostly Andhra Pradesh) is forecast to be left out of the rain footprint.

Among the random models surveyed, only the global model of the North American Ensemble Forecast System saw rains unfolding to some extent over the southeast coast during the five-day-period starting July 7.

The one eventuality that should make this possible is the ‘break monsoon’ cool-off during when rains would be confined to the foothills of the Himalayas, the adjoining northeast and the southeast coast. Almost all models indicate the possibility of rain belt shifting in this manner to the foothills but without conclusively saying whether it would truly represent a break monsoon.
This is probably because a weak monsoon phase is often mistaken for a ‘break monsoon’ thanks to the proclivity of rains to mass around the foothills but not quite accompanied by near-total drying-up elsewhere which is the abiding theme of the latter. The contours of the unfolding event would become clearer during the next few days only.

On Wednesday, IMD said the upper air cyclonic circulation over east Uttar Pradesh and adjoining north Madhya Pradesh persisted. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over east Uttar Pradesh and north Madhya Pradesh during next three days.

An IMD warning valid for the next two days said isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan, Goa, south Gujarat, Saurashtra, coastal Karnataka, east Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh and the Northeastern States. Rains will later pick over west Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and north Gujarat.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/07/03/stories/2008070351171100.htm