{News} 080704 Fresh whirl over northwest Bay by Sunday
Fresh whirl over northwest Bay by Sunday
Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram, July 4 The Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has set up a watch for an upper air cyclonic circulation expected to materialise over northwest Bay of Bengal around Sunday.
The country’s premier agency responsible for forecasts in the short-to-medium range said on Friday that model predictions suggested that the circulation is expected to track west over the next five days to reach Saurashtra and the adjoining region around July 10.
The NCMRWF did not say anything about the prospects for its intensification anytime during the period but it is expected to cause fairly widespread rainfall over West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and parts of northwest India.
SUBDUED IN SOUTH
The interior peninsula would continue to witness subdued rainfall activity during this period, though the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggested otherwise. It also saw a more southerly track for the westward movement of the system dragging rains over west interior peninsula.
Meanwhile, a seasonal forecast for July-August-September by the Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre (set up by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, APEC) suggested continuing wetter-than-normal monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
Less-than-normal precipitation has been indicated for the southern peninsula for the period.
The anomalously dry conditions were a take-off from Sri Lanka to the immediate south and further to northeast through Indochina, all the way into the Japanese archipelago.
The rest of the Indian subcontinent is expected to see cooler than normal conditions, apart from above normal precipitation.
The cooler than normal sea surface temperatures over equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and surface wind conditions suggest a possibility of the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, the APEC Climate Centre said.
DIFFERENT PICTURE
The Met Office, UK, saw a contrasting picture emerging in July-August-September during when the southern tip of the peninsula (south Kerala and south Tamil Nadu) is forecast to receive good precipitation.
The rest of the peninsula will receive normal precipitation.
But the UK model, as have many other comparable international models, sees surplus rains over the west coast from coastal Karnataka to north, the Mumbai-Konkan belt, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining north Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and west Uttar Pradesh. Elsewhere, the rains would tend to be normal.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update on Friday that the upper air cyclonic circulation over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood persisted. Fairly widespread rainfall has been predicted for Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh and north Chhattisgarh during the next three days. RAINS TO EAST Current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models suggested fairly widespread rainfall activity over West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of northwest India during this period. But subdued rainfall activity is likely to rule the roost in interior peninsula for the next 4-5 days. A warning issued by the IMD said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over the Northeastern States and coastal Orissa on Saturday and over West Bengal, Sikkim, north Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh and East Uttar Pradesh until Monday. Three days from Monday is likely to witness a decrease in rainfall activity over the Indo-Gangetic plains and the Northeastern States. But rainfall will scale up over west Madhya Pradesh, adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat. On Friday, the axis of the monsoon trough passed through Ganganagar, Delhi, Shajahanpur, Lucknow, Varanasi, Gaya, Asansol, Kolkata and southeastward into east-central Bay of Bengal.
Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/07/05/stories/2008070550801200.htm
Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram, July 4 The Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has set up a watch for an upper air cyclonic circulation expected to materialise over northwest Bay of Bengal around Sunday.
The country’s premier agency responsible for forecasts in the short-to-medium range said on Friday that model predictions suggested that the circulation is expected to track west over the next five days to reach Saurashtra and the adjoining region around July 10.
The NCMRWF did not say anything about the prospects for its intensification anytime during the period but it is expected to cause fairly widespread rainfall over West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and parts of northwest India.
SUBDUED IN SOUTH
The interior peninsula would continue to witness subdued rainfall activity during this period, though the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggested otherwise. It also saw a more southerly track for the westward movement of the system dragging rains over west interior peninsula.
Meanwhile, a seasonal forecast for July-August-September by the Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre (set up by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, APEC) suggested continuing wetter-than-normal monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
Less-than-normal precipitation has been indicated for the southern peninsula for the period.
The anomalously dry conditions were a take-off from Sri Lanka to the immediate south and further to northeast through Indochina, all the way into the Japanese archipelago.
The rest of the Indian subcontinent is expected to see cooler than normal conditions, apart from above normal precipitation.
The cooler than normal sea surface temperatures over equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and surface wind conditions suggest a possibility of the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, the APEC Climate Centre said.
DIFFERENT PICTURE
The Met Office, UK, saw a contrasting picture emerging in July-August-September during when the southern tip of the peninsula (south Kerala and south Tamil Nadu) is forecast to receive good precipitation.
The rest of the peninsula will receive normal precipitation.
But the UK model, as have many other comparable international models, sees surplus rains over the west coast from coastal Karnataka to north, the Mumbai-Konkan belt, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining north Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and west Uttar Pradesh. Elsewhere, the rains would tend to be normal.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update on Friday that the upper air cyclonic circulation over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood persisted. Fairly widespread rainfall has been predicted for Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh and north Chhattisgarh during the next three days. RAINS TO EAST Current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models suggested fairly widespread rainfall activity over West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of northwest India during this period. But subdued rainfall activity is likely to rule the roost in interior peninsula for the next 4-5 days. A warning issued by the IMD said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over the Northeastern States and coastal Orissa on Saturday and over West Bengal, Sikkim, north Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh and East Uttar Pradesh until Monday. Three days from Monday is likely to witness a decrease in rainfall activity over the Indo-Gangetic plains and the Northeastern States. But rainfall will scale up over west Madhya Pradesh, adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat. On Friday, the axis of the monsoon trough passed through Ganganagar, Delhi, Shajahanpur, Lucknow, Varanasi, Gaya, Asansol, Kolkata and southeastward into east-central Bay of Bengal.
Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/07/05/stories/2008070550801200.htm
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