{News} 080709 BOM gives more benign forecast

BOM gives more benign forecast
Fairfax Media, 9/07/2008 11:10:00 AM

AFTER fears rose about another markedly drier than average season across Australia’s grain belt, the latest information on the key drivers of rainfall has the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predicting the likelihood of relatively neutral conditions.


On the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) front, the Bureau is confident neutral conditions are firmly established, while there has been some easing of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which was in a positive phase which means lower than average winter- spring rainfall in south-eastern Australia.


The BOM is now quite confident that neutral ENSO conditions have been established – with sea surface temperatures close to normal (generally within 1°C) across the entire basin, including close to the dateline where the last remnants of the La Niña had persisted.


The trade winds have moderated further, cloudiness near the dateline has been near-normal and the SOI has also been in the neutral range since May, meaning all ENSO indicators are now neutral.


This has led the Bureau to predict a neutral ENSO season through 2008. None of its models suggest a redevelopment of a La Niña and only a minority predict an El Niño developing, with a slight strengthening of the trade winds easing fears of a late-developing El Nino, although there is still a small chance that a late season one could occur.


The index used to measure the IOD has weakened considerably since its peak in early June. Those models that forecast the IOD show it persisting but moderating further throughout the rest of the year.

Source:http://nqr.farmonline.com.au/news/state/agribusiness-and-general/general/bom-gives-more-benign-forecast/807489.aspx

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