{Announcement} 080723 ENSO Wrap-Up
ENSO Wrap-Up
BOM, Australia
Summary: Tropical Pacific remains neutral and continues to warm
Neutral ENSO conditions continue to prevail across the tropical Pacific. Over the past two weeks most indicators of ENSO have remained close to normal. The Trade Winds have strengthened in the west but remain close to normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Cloudiness near the dateline has been near-normal and the SOI has also remained in the neutral range since May. Sea surface temperatures have continued to warm further across the entire basin.
Climate model forecasts of ENSO show that neutral conditions are likely to continue thoughout 2008. Most models show some warming in the coming season. None suggest a redevelopment of a La Niña and only a minority predict an El Niño developing. As winter is a period of relatively high predictability the persistence of neutral conditions is considered the most likely scenario in the coming months. However, there is still a small chance of an El Niño in 2008, as some events have been known to evolve late in the year. The Pacific will continue to be monitored closely for any signs of El Niño growth.
The Indian Ocean is currently in a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), but the index used to measure the IOD has weakened considerably since its peak in early June. Those models that forecast the IOD show it persisting but moderating further throughout the rest of the year. As a positive IOD is known to increase the chance of below normal winter-spring rainfall in southeast Australia, its evolution will also be closely monitored.
Source:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
BOM, Australia
Summary: Tropical Pacific remains neutral and continues to warm
Neutral ENSO conditions continue to prevail across the tropical Pacific. Over the past two weeks most indicators of ENSO have remained close to normal. The Trade Winds have strengthened in the west but remain close to normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Cloudiness near the dateline has been near-normal and the SOI has also remained in the neutral range since May. Sea surface temperatures have continued to warm further across the entire basin.
Climate model forecasts of ENSO show that neutral conditions are likely to continue thoughout 2008. Most models show some warming in the coming season. None suggest a redevelopment of a La Niña and only a minority predict an El Niño developing. As winter is a period of relatively high predictability the persistence of neutral conditions is considered the most likely scenario in the coming months. However, there is still a small chance of an El Niño in 2008, as some events have been known to evolve late in the year. The Pacific will continue to be monitored closely for any signs of El Niño growth.
The Indian Ocean is currently in a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), but the index used to measure the IOD has weakened considerably since its peak in early June. Those models that forecast the IOD show it persisting but moderating further throughout the rest of the year. As a positive IOD is known to increase the chance of below normal winter-spring rainfall in southeast Australia, its evolution will also be closely monitored.
Source:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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